Saturday, January 27, 2018

Eagles Hoping the Third Time is the Charm

The Eagles’ run all the way to Super Bowl LII has captivated football fans all across the nation given the obstacles they had to overcome just to get there. They have one last hurdle to clear to become unlikely world champions, but it is easily the biggest obstacle they will have to get over, under, through or around to achieve this loftiest of goals.

This is the same team that only won seven games last season with rookie head coach Doug Pederson at the helm and rookie quarterback Carson Wentz under center. The outlook for the 2017 season was positive, but Philadelphia was the third-favorite just to win the NFC East behind Dallas and New York. The Eagles got tripped up in Kansas City against Andy Reid and Co. to open their schedule at 1-1, but the next loss did not come until Week 13 against Seattle and the rest is history. Meanwhile, the Cowboys faltered in the absence of Pro Bowl running back Ezekiel Elliott to finish 9-7 and the Giants never even got out of the gate with a 3-13 record on the year.

The loss of Wentz to injury and the subsequent ascension of former Eagles’ starter Nick Foles to the man running the show on offense was supposed to result in an early exit from the playoffs as the top seed in the NFC. I was the one that proclaimed Foles the Eagles’ franchise quarterback of the future following his breakout season in 2013, but little did I know that then-coach Chip Kelly had alternative plans for that position. Fole's NFL career faltered over the next few seasons until he returned to the nest this past offseason. Wentz has obviously stepped up to fill that role for hopefully the next decade and beyond, but I could not be happier for Andy Reid’s third-round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.


All told, the Eagles have a chance to finally win that elusive Super Bowl title in their third trip to the NFL’s biggest stage. They never showed up against Oakland in their trip to the Super Bowl following the 1980 season after head coach Dick Vermeil had that team wound tighter than a two-dollar watch. The Super Bowl appearance in the 2004 season looked good on paper with a 24-21 loss to New England, but the eventual outcome of that game was never really in doubt.

The odds have been stacked against Philly throughout the postseason and the underdog role suits this team well. The one encouraging thought about facing Bill Belichick’s Patriots with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady under center is the fact that this duo’s only two losses in the Super Bowl along with their five victories came against a NFC East team that was given no chance to win either game. If Foles can take a page out of Eli Manning’s two magical Super Bowl performances against New England, then the third time just might be the charm.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Eagles Flying High as Underdogs

The minute that Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 14 of the regular season, the Eagles were destined to play the role of underdogs in any postseason game they played with his backup Nick Foles in the starting role at quarterback. Even when Philadelphia clinched the top seed in the NFC to guarantee that it would have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the word out of Las Vegas from the folks that set the betting odds for the games confirmed this notion.

Last Saturday against Atlanta in the Divisional Round, the Eagles used their bruising ground game combined with some high-percentage pass plays to score just enough points (15) to win that game to move to 14-3 on the year. The real credit goes to a defense that held the high-powered Falcons’ offense to 281 total yards and more importantly to just 10 points on the scoreboard. I would expect head coach Doug Pederson to rely on the exact same game plan to launch the Birds into their third Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.

Apparently, there was a run on dog masks this week in advance of this Sunday’s NFL Championship matchup against the Minnesota Vikings after Lane Johnson and Chris Long donned a dog face for the postgame celebration at Lincoln Financial Field in last week’s win. The entire team appears to relish the role of underdogs which can be a powerful motivational tool when you have the talent to fully utilize this high level of emotion on the field of play.

I am not discounting what the Vikings have been able to accomplish this season with an identical 14-3 run through their first 17 games, but I would also be quick to point out the way they won their Divisional Round matchup against New Orleans on a miracle 61-yard touchdown with no time left on the clock. Some football experts might suggest that this improbable victory gives Minnesota an edge in momentum coming into Sunday’s game as a three-point road favorite. I would suggest that the memory of how the Vikings blew a 17-point halftime lead while getting completely outplayed in the last two quarters of that game has to creep into this team’s suddenly fragile psyche.

The biggest edge that Philadelphia has in this conference title showdown along with playing the role of underdog is the game being played at the Linc. Other than a garbage loss to Dallas in Week 17, the Eagles have been dominant on their home field all season long. There is a reason why earning the top seed in the conference carries so much weight in the NFL playoffs.

My guess is that Minnesota gets too caught up in playing the Super Bowl in its home stadium that it forgets that it must get there by beating an extremely hungry pack of dogs on the road.

Friday, January 12, 2018

Falcons at Eagles Game Preview & Pick

I am really surprised that the NFL did not cancel Saturday's Divisional Round playoff game between the No. 6 seed Atlanta Falcons and the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles since just about every so-called football expert with a published opinion has already advanced the Falcons into the NFC Championship Game as a lock to win this game.

Ever since Carson Wentz was lost for the season with a torn ACL and Nick Foles took his place at quarterback, the Eagles were destined to be a 'one and done' team in the postseason even if they were the top seed in the NFC. When you add in the fact that Atlanta had little problem last Saturday on the road knocking the Los Angeles Rams out of the playoffs, it is pretty obvious that Philadelphia is bound to suffer the same fate this Saturday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field.

I picked the Falcons to beat the Rams, but it was more about Los Angeles not playing up to expectations as opposed to Atlanta being an unbeatable force heading into these playoffs. Last time I looked, the Falcons were 10-6 in regular season with losses to Buffalo and Miami at home early in the year and to Carolina and New Orleans on the road in the second half of their schedule. Atlanta ended the regular season ranked 15th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 22.1 points per game and it was tied for 23rd in turnovers with 12 interceptions and six fumbles.

On the other side of this matchup is an Eagles' defense that was ranked fourth in the NFL in both yards allowed (306.5) and points allowed (18.4). There is no doubt that Atlanta's Matt Ryan is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but this game could fall squarely on his ability to move the ball down field through the air against a defense that was first in the league at stopping the run.

When it comes to the Eagles' offense, you cannot expect Foles to fully fill the shoes of a quarterback that was on his way to winning league MVP. However, he also has the luxury of handing the ball off to a trio of backs that were part of a ground game that averaged 132.2 rushing yards per game, which was the third-highest total in the league this year.

It is going to take a total team effort from Doug Pederson's squad to prove all those experts wrong, but if I had a team that could run the ball and play shutdown defense while playing in the luxury of one of the most hostile environments in the NFL in mid-January against a dome team, I would like my chances of getting it done.

The link below to SportsBettingStats.com is my complete game preview and official pick for Saturday's NFC Divisional Round tilt.

LINK: ATLANTA FALCONS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES FREE NFC PLAYOFF PICK - BETTING ODDS

Friday, January 5, 2018

Unexpected Matchup for Eagles in Divisional Round

While the top-seeded Eagles enjoy the week off during the opening Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs, the only thing that we know for sure is that they will face a team from the NFC South at home next Saturday in the Divisional Round.

The logical matchup would be against New Orleans assuming that the Saints beat Carolina at home on Sunday in their wild card matchup after the Los Angeles Rams knock the visiting Atlanta Falcons out of the playoffs with a win on Saturday.

The Rams (-5.5 points) and the Saints (-7 points) are solid home favorites to win and advance to the next round. They are both overwhelming picks to win outright among any number of NFL experts. I just so happen to think that too many of these so-called experts are getting way ahead of things, especially when it comes to a team that posted its first winning season since 2003.

I would tend to agree that New Orleans should be able to get past the Panthers after beating them twice in the regular season by a combined 31 points, but when it comes to the NFL, one team beating any other team three times in same season can be a very tall task, especially when the two division rivals are extremely familiar with one another.

The boldest prediction of the day is that the Panther/Saints matchup will have no bearing on next week’s Eagles game. I happen to think that Atlanta can go into Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night and beat Los Angeles as a road underdog.

The Rams are the better overall team on paper behind an offense that was first in the NFL in scoring complementing a defense that was 12th in points allowed, but there is something to be said for experience on the elevated stage of the playoffs.

Atlanta qualified for the postseason six times over the last 10 seasons highlighted by a trip to last year’s Super Bowl. The result of that game withstanding, this team has a veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan that has recently played on the NFL’s biggest stage. You would have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last time that the Rams played past the final game of the regular season.

Los Angeles is just one season removed from winning a grand total of four games and while I am not taking anything away from this year’s amazing turnaround, there have been quite a few ‘worst to first runs’ in the NFL that have resulted in a ‘one and done’ in the playoffs. There is a reason why home field advantage is so important in the postseason, but there is also a reason why they play the game.

The Eagles are going to have a tough game on their hands next Saturday regardless of what happens this weekend, but do not be surprised if we are left with a “Battle of the Birds” in Philly’s long-awaited return to postseason play.