Football is a game of matchups which are highlighted even more on a stage as big as the Super Bowl. The big matchup that everyone is talking about in this Sunday’s showdown between Seattle and Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII is the Seahawks No. 1 ranked pass defense against Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ No. 1 ranked passing offense. My take on this one is that Seattle will be able to keep things in check, but Manning is still going to make some plays that lead to points on the board.
Another key matchup is Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch against a Broncos’ rush defense that was ranked eighth in the NFL; allowing an average of 101.6 yards a game. Lynch has already ran for 249 yards in his first two postseason games this year and while he will be a factor, do not expect any record-setting performances.
The bottom line is that both of these team’s primary strengths tend to negate each other, so this game will be a true test of wills between two very good ball clubs. The x-factor could be Seattle’s ability to force a few turnovers. It led the NFL this season with a turnover ratio of +20. In the end, take the Seahawks and the 2.5 points, but my top play for this game is the UNDER on a total line of 47 in a close, hard-fought battle to the bitter end.
Below is a link to my complete breakdown of this Sunday's Super Bowl in an article previously written for Sporting Charts
Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Preview
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Friday, January 24, 2014
Super Bowl XLVIII "Over/Under" Preview & Pick
Anyone who follows this blog on a regular basis is well aware that I have been making weekly total line picks for Doc's Sports for the entire 2013 NFL season. While nobody out there is about to confuse me with some of the top handicappers in the sports betting business, I did end the regular season with a winning percentage of 55 percent and then proceeded to follow this up with 3-1 record on my top picks for the NFL playoffs. I must have done something right since Doc's asked me to put together an "over/under" pick for next Sunday's Super Bowl matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. The current total line for the Big Game is set at 47.
When handicapping this matchup, you have to decide between Denver's No. 1 ranked defense or Seattle's No. 1 ranked defense in what will be a true test of wills. Whichever of these units performs the best will not only dictate how many total points are scored, but the eventual outcome of Super Bowl XLVIII.
You also have to take into consideration that the Broncos' defense has also been playing at a high level in the postseason and that Seattle has failed to score more than 23 points in five of its last six games. Another huge factor could be the cold and wind at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey in the first outdoor Super Bowl at a cold weather location. This should tip you off to which way I am leaning with my pick for this game, but for the full story check out the link below for my complete preview for Doc's Sports.
Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under
When handicapping this matchup, you have to decide between Denver's No. 1 ranked defense or Seattle's No. 1 ranked defense in what will be a true test of wills. Whichever of these units performs the best will not only dictate how many total points are scored, but the eventual outcome of Super Bowl XLVIII.
You also have to take into consideration that the Broncos' defense has also been playing at a high level in the postseason and that Seattle has failed to score more than 23 points in five of its last six games. Another huge factor could be the cold and wind at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey in the first outdoor Super Bowl at a cold weather location. This should tip you off to which way I am leaning with my pick for this game, but for the full story check out the link below for my complete preview for Doc's Sports.
Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under
Friday, January 17, 2014
NFL Conference Championships Preview & Pick
We are down to the final three games of the NFL season. The first two are this Sunday with both the AFC and NFC Championship Games followed by Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday, Feb. 2. The New England Patriots will be on the road at Mile High to square off against the Denver Broncos in the AFC, while we will have a rubber match in the NFC title game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. Most people would have to agree that things have followed suit this season as all four of these teams were the top two favorites in their respective conference to make it to Super Bowl XLVIII.
Starting in the AFC, it is a fantasy football dream with Tom Brady squaring off against Peyton Manning, but fans have to remember that these two future NFL Hall of Famers do not actually play against one another. A bigger matchup in this game could New England running back LaGarrette Blount against a Denver defense that was ranked eighth in the NFL at stopping the run. Blount put up some big time fantasy football numbers last week against Indianapolis with 166 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 24 carries.
Look for a heavy dose of the Patriots' running game again this Sunday, as they turn what everyone thinks will be an aerial shootout into a grinder in an effort to control the clock and keep Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible. New England is a 5.5-point road underdog with most books, but it will not need any points in a straight-up win.
Defense will be the name of the game in the NFC Championship in what will be a test of wills between two teams (and two head coaches) that really do not like one another. Current form might give 49ers' quarterback Colin Kaepernick the slight edge over Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, but neither of these young guns is going put up numbers that would excite any fantasy football fan. This game will be decided in the trenches and players such as Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch will garner the most attention by running the ball.
The biggest edge in my book is the Seahawks playing this game on their home field. The home team in this NFC West rivalry is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings including both of this year's regular season games. In the end, San Francisco covers with the current 3.5-point spread, but Seattle goes to the Super Bowl with the 20-17 win.
For a breakdown of some of the key stats in each of these matchups that could have a major impact on the eventual outcome, please check at an article I wrote this week for Sporting Charts (linked below).
NFL AFC and NFC Championship Previews
Starting in the AFC, it is a fantasy football dream with Tom Brady squaring off against Peyton Manning, but fans have to remember that these two future NFL Hall of Famers do not actually play against one another. A bigger matchup in this game could New England running back LaGarrette Blount against a Denver defense that was ranked eighth in the NFL at stopping the run. Blount put up some big time fantasy football numbers last week against Indianapolis with 166 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 24 carries.
Look for a heavy dose of the Patriots' running game again this Sunday, as they turn what everyone thinks will be an aerial shootout into a grinder in an effort to control the clock and keep Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible. New England is a 5.5-point road underdog with most books, but it will not need any points in a straight-up win.
Defense will be the name of the game in the NFC Championship in what will be a test of wills between two teams (and two head coaches) that really do not like one another. Current form might give 49ers' quarterback Colin Kaepernick the slight edge over Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, but neither of these young guns is going put up numbers that would excite any fantasy football fan. This game will be decided in the trenches and players such as Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch will garner the most attention by running the ball.
The biggest edge in my book is the Seahawks playing this game on their home field. The home team in this NFC West rivalry is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings including both of this year's regular season games. In the end, San Francisco covers with the current 3.5-point spread, but Seattle goes to the Super Bowl with the 20-17 win.
For a breakdown of some of the key stats in each of these matchups that could have a major impact on the eventual outcome, please check at an article I wrote this week for Sporting Charts (linked below).
NFL AFC and NFC Championship Previews
Friday, January 10, 2014
NFL Playoffs Key Stats and Betting Trends
NFL football games are won or lost on the field, especially this time of the season when the winners advance and the losers go home in the quest for a spot in the Super Bowl. However, key stats and recent betting trends can often time provide some valuable clues and insight into what the possible outcome of a particular game may be. The following is a link to an article I recently wrote for Doc's Sports covering some of the most important stats and trends for this weekend's Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Key Stats and Betting Trends
NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Key Stats and Betting Trends
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
NFL Divisional Round Playoffs "Over/Under" Top Plays
I split last weekend's Wildcard Round "over/under" picks with the correct call on the UNDER in the Saints vs. Eagles game on a closing line of 54.5, but I went the wrong way in the 49ers vs. Packers game with a play on the OVER on a closing line of 47. The weather in Green Bay had to be a factor given just how cold it was at Lambeau Field, but another score here or there would have been enough to pull off the sweep. I will have two more picks for this week's games before calling it quits for the season. Overall it was a good year with a winning percentage of roughly 55 percent.
Looking back at Philadelphia's loss to New Orleans, it was another case of leaving way too much time on the clock for a veteran quarterback that knows how to move the ball down the field. The stunning aspect of that final drive and the entire game for that matter was the way the Saints ran the ball right down the Eagles' throats, which had not been an issue for most of the second half of the season. As I mentioned in a number of previous posts, the best thing to come out of this season was the development of Nick Foles as a legitimate franchise quarterback in the NFL. He has a strong and accurate arm, but his best trait is the ability to avoid costly mistakes. He may not be as flashy as a Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick, but he is not nearly as reckless with the ball as those other two quarterbacks were at times.
In typical Eagles fashion this team left us wanting more after a great run to the NFC East title. The foundation is there for long term success as long as Chip Kelly and the front office continue to add young, solid talent to both sides of the ball. The most pressing need is to improve the defensive secondary, but look how much players such as tackle Lane Johnson and tight end Zach Ertz contributed to an offense that finished the regular season as one of the best in the league.
Well it is on to the teams that are still alive in this year's Super Bowl Derby with my top two "over/under" plays for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. To give you a hint, I am sticking with the UNDER in both games and using two of the same teams from last week. For a full preview of both of these picks click the link below for my final installment of a season long series for Doc's Sports.
NFL Totals Betting: Divisional Playoffs Over and Under Predictions
Looking back at Philadelphia's loss to New Orleans, it was another case of leaving way too much time on the clock for a veteran quarterback that knows how to move the ball down the field. The stunning aspect of that final drive and the entire game for that matter was the way the Saints ran the ball right down the Eagles' throats, which had not been an issue for most of the second half of the season. As I mentioned in a number of previous posts, the best thing to come out of this season was the development of Nick Foles as a legitimate franchise quarterback in the NFL. He has a strong and accurate arm, but his best trait is the ability to avoid costly mistakes. He may not be as flashy as a Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick, but he is not nearly as reckless with the ball as those other two quarterbacks were at times.
In typical Eagles fashion this team left us wanting more after a great run to the NFC East title. The foundation is there for long term success as long as Chip Kelly and the front office continue to add young, solid talent to both sides of the ball. The most pressing need is to improve the defensive secondary, but look how much players such as tackle Lane Johnson and tight end Zach Ertz contributed to an offense that finished the regular season as one of the best in the league.
Well it is on to the teams that are still alive in this year's Super Bowl Derby with my top two "over/under" plays for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. To give you a hint, I am sticking with the UNDER in both games and using two of the same teams from last week. For a full preview of both of these picks click the link below for my final installment of a season long series for Doc's Sports.
NFL Totals Betting: Divisional Playoffs Over and Under Predictions
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