Friday, June 12, 2015

Betting on the Eagles' Vital Numbers

We are getting to the point of this long and arduous NFL offseason where it is worth taking a closer look at the 2015 NFL futures odds that have already been posted and recently updated for all 32 NFL teams in an effort to try and find some solid value in the numbers. For the sake of this week's post, I have consulted BetOnline sportbook to get the most up-to-date NFL futures for the Philadelphia Eagles to see where the best value lies in all of their particular betting odds for the upcoming season.

Super Bowl 50 Odds to Win: +2000

I am one of the most optimistic Eagles' fans in the world, but unless everything goes this team's way this season, it is still a few players away from being a legitimate Super Bowl-caliber team. Do not get me wrong, I think that head coach Chip Kelly has made some bold personnel moves to make this a very good team that has the potential to overachieve at the highest level, but the value in the risk/reward when it comes to betting on Philly to win a Super Bowl this season is just not there.

NFC Championship Odds to Win: +1000

Winning an NFC Championship is a much more obtainable goal as the fourth-best team on the list behind Seattle (+250), Green Bay (+350) and Dallas (+650); however this could be a stretch as well given the current unknowns with the Eagles' new-look offense and its untested re-tooled defense. This is the same scenario as winning the Super Bowl in that everything would have to go their way in the regular season to earn one of the top two seeds in the conference. I would not rule out a small wager on the Birds winning the NFC this year, but I still do not see all that much value in their current betting odds.

NFC East Division Odds to Win: +150

Most times the betting odds for futures are weighed heavily on the recent past as the betting public has the tendency to form its opinions based on what happened in the previous season. This is the only explanation I can come up with as to why Dallas has been listed as a +140 favorite to repeat as NFC East champs. The Cowboys still have some major holes on a defense that was ranked 19th in the NFL last season in total yards allowed and they lost their best player on offense (DeMarco Murray) to their division rivals. You can talk about the Cowboys' offensive line all you want, but putting the ball back into Tony Romo's hands to try and win games adds-up to another 8-8 record in my book.

The Cowboys' anticipated decline plays right into my rational to go big with a wager on the Eagles' +150 futures odds to reclaim the division title in 2015. I will admit that part of this is wishful thinking, but I honestly do believe that the loss of Murray will have a major impact on the Cowboys' offense in a negative way while he quickly makes Eagles' fans completely forget about Shady McCoy.

Total Projected Wins: 9.5 (-105 OVER & -125 UNDER)

This futures bet goes hand-in-hand in my prediction that Philadelphia win the NFC East. In my "everything goes their way" scenario, I have the Eagles winning 12 or 13 games this season, but a more realistic prediction is a third-straight record of 10-6, which should be more than enough to end-up at the top of the list in this division.

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