All season long I have been making "over/under" predictions for my top three NFL games each week for Doc's Sports Service, so I was honored when they asked me to cover this year's Super Bowl and offer my pick for this game.
The Super Bowl is without a doubt the most heavily bet single sporting event in the world with billions of dollars wagered on just about every aspect of the game. The amount of money bet on the total line is second only to the money wagered on the winner of the game itself with the spread. With that kind a pressure to come up with the correct prediction for this Sunday's game, I dug deep into this matchup to try and uncover where the value lies in the actual total line, which right now is anywhere between 47 and 48 points.
The following is a link my complete preview and pick for Super Bowl XLVII's total line in an article that was previously posted on Doc's Sports Service. While there are no guarantees when it comes to wagering on sports, my confidence level for this pick would make it a 5 Unit Play utilizing Doc's Unit Betting System.
Super Bowl XLVII "Over/Under" Preview & Free Pick
Monday, January 28, 2013
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Top NFL Teams Against The Spread (2010-Present)
The Eagles were not only horrible on the field this season with just four victories against 12 'painful to watch' losses, they were extremely hard on the wallet as well with a costly 3-12-1 record covering against the spread. If the NFL used this record for the college draft order, new head coach Chip Kelly would have the first overall pick as opposed to former head coach Andy Reid having it for real in Kansas City.
In 2011 the Birds matched their 8-8 record straight-up with an 8-8 record ATS which still adds up to a losing season when you take into account the 10 percent vig you pay on each wager. The last time the Eagles were north of .500 on the field was in 2010 when they won the NFC East with a record of 10-6. They would have cost you money that year too with a 7-9 record ATS. You have to go back to the 2009 season when the Birds once again won the division with an overall record of 11-5 to find the last time they were over .500 ATS (9-7).
This little exercise proves that the Eagles were definitely a team to avoid (or bet against) over the past several seasons, but it also begs the question as to which NFL teams have been money makers ATS in recent years.
The following is a link to my thorough examination of this very topic in an article I recently wrote for Sporting Charts.
Top NFL Teams Against The Spread (2010-Present)
In 2011 the Birds matched their 8-8 record straight-up with an 8-8 record ATS which still adds up to a losing season when you take into account the 10 percent vig you pay on each wager. The last time the Eagles were north of .500 on the field was in 2010 when they won the NFC East with a record of 10-6. They would have cost you money that year too with a 7-9 record ATS. You have to go back to the 2009 season when the Birds once again won the division with an overall record of 11-5 to find the last time they were over .500 ATS (9-7).
This little exercise proves that the Eagles were definitely a team to avoid (or bet against) over the past several seasons, but it also begs the question as to which NFL teams have been money makers ATS in recent years.
The following is a link to my thorough examination of this very topic in an article I recently wrote for Sporting Charts.
Top NFL Teams Against The Spread (2010-Present)
Saturday, January 19, 2013
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship Free Pick
The NFL season is down to its final three games (not counting next week's Pro Bowl) with both the AFC and NFC Championships this Sunday and Super Bowl XLVII on Feb.3. While we are all painfully aware of the fact that the Eagles' season ended before it ever really began, the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons are the two teams left in the NFC battling it out for a spot in the big game.
The 49ers started this season as one of the odds-on-favorites to win the conference and Atlanta was clearly the best team in the NFC in terms of wins and losses with overall record of 13-3. In fact, this is the first time in recent memory that the top two seeds met in the NFC title game.
San Francisco comes into this matchup as a four-point favorite on the road and for good reason. It ran all over Green Bay last week in a shockingly easy 45-31 victory erasing any memory of a couple of shaky performances down the stretch in the regular season. Second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick looked like the second coming of Steve Young and the 49ers' defense showed everyone why it is one of the best in the NFL by coming up with a couple of big plays when it needed to the most.
Atlanta is just plain lucky to even be in this game after blowing a 20-point lead against Seattle last week. It needed a last minute field goal to squeak-out a 30-28 victory over the Seahawks in a bold attempt to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Falcons are a very good team on paper, but too often they play not to lose as opposed to playing to win. This weakness is bound to surface against a 49ers' team that is still bitter over last season's loss to the Giants in the conference title game.
While it is pretty obvious which way I am leaning in this game, if you are interested in reading my complete preview and prediction for this matchup click the link below for my recent post on Bang the Book.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship Free Pick
The 49ers started this season as one of the odds-on-favorites to win the conference and Atlanta was clearly the best team in the NFC in terms of wins and losses with overall record of 13-3. In fact, this is the first time in recent memory that the top two seeds met in the NFC title game.
San Francisco comes into this matchup as a four-point favorite on the road and for good reason. It ran all over Green Bay last week in a shockingly easy 45-31 victory erasing any memory of a couple of shaky performances down the stretch in the regular season. Second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick looked like the second coming of Steve Young and the 49ers' defense showed everyone why it is one of the best in the NFL by coming up with a couple of big plays when it needed to the most.
Atlanta is just plain lucky to even be in this game after blowing a 20-point lead against Seattle last week. It needed a last minute field goal to squeak-out a 30-28 victory over the Seahawks in a bold attempt to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Falcons are a very good team on paper, but too often they play not to lose as opposed to playing to win. This weakness is bound to surface against a 49ers' team that is still bitter over last season's loss to the Giants in the conference title game.
While it is pretty obvious which way I am leaning in this game, if you are interested in reading my complete preview and prediction for this matchup click the link below for my recent post on Bang the Book.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship Free Pick
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Chip Kelly takes over nest in Philadelphia
It took former Eagles' head coach Andy Reid less than a week to land another job in the NFL when he was named to the same position with Kansas City earlier this month. It took team owner Jeff Lurie a bit longer than expected to fill Reid's shoes, but in the end all indications suggest that he got his man when Chip Kelly decided that he wanted a shot to coach in the NFL after all.
Philadelphia doggedly pursued Kelly just hours after his Oregon Ducks completed another highly successful season with an impressive 35-17 victory over Kansas State in this season's Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. After interviewing with the team, Kelly decided to return to Oregon next season and put the NFL on hold for now. What actually happened between then and now to change his mind remains to be seen, but in a news conference scheduled for Thursday afternoon, he will be officially introduced as the Eagles 21st head coach in franchise history.
Just the other night I was talking with a fellow knuckleheaded Eagles' fan about how I was glad that neither Chip nor Brian Kelly had any interest in the head coaching job in Philly. In a previous post, I opted for hiring a coordinator or assistant coach that was previously with a team that had already won a Super Bowl, similar to what Reid brought to the table when he was with Green Bay.
After a parade of stars worked their way through the interview process, it appears that Lurie never gave up hope of still landing his original choice when the whole process first began. You have to give the Eagles credit for sticking to their guns, but the jury is still out as to whether or not it was the right move.
Kelly brings some impressive coaching credentials to South Philly but they were all honed on the collegiate level with no previous NFL experience of any type. Often times what motivates teams and players in college does not translate to the pro level. Jim Harbaugh did it almost effortlessly in San Francisco, which will be playing in its second-straight NFC Championship Game in his two-year tenure, but he is certainly the exception not the rule.
The one thing that Kelly will bring to the table is a renewed enthusiasm and sense of excitement to not only to a beaten down team but its downtrodden fans as well. What is done is done, so it is time to get on the Chip Kelly bandwagon for better or worse. He will have all the opportunity in the world to be successful in Philadelphia as one thing Lurie is committed to is bringing a Super Bowl title to a city starved for a champion. It is now up to Kelly to hopefully be that one last missing piece to finally get the job done.
Philadelphia doggedly pursued Kelly just hours after his Oregon Ducks completed another highly successful season with an impressive 35-17 victory over Kansas State in this season's Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. After interviewing with the team, Kelly decided to return to Oregon next season and put the NFL on hold for now. What actually happened between then and now to change his mind remains to be seen, but in a news conference scheduled for Thursday afternoon, he will be officially introduced as the Eagles 21st head coach in franchise history.
Just the other night I was talking with a fellow knuckleheaded Eagles' fan about how I was glad that neither Chip nor Brian Kelly had any interest in the head coaching job in Philly. In a previous post, I opted for hiring a coordinator or assistant coach that was previously with a team that had already won a Super Bowl, similar to what Reid brought to the table when he was with Green Bay.
After a parade of stars worked their way through the interview process, it appears that Lurie never gave up hope of still landing his original choice when the whole process first began. You have to give the Eagles credit for sticking to their guns, but the jury is still out as to whether or not it was the right move.
Kelly brings some impressive coaching credentials to South Philly but they were all honed on the collegiate level with no previous NFL experience of any type. Often times what motivates teams and players in college does not translate to the pro level. Jim Harbaugh did it almost effortlessly in San Francisco, which will be playing in its second-straight NFC Championship Game in his two-year tenure, but he is certainly the exception not the rule.
The one thing that Kelly will bring to the table is a renewed enthusiasm and sense of excitement to not only to a beaten down team but its downtrodden fans as well. What is done is done, so it is time to get on the Chip Kelly bandwagon for better or worse. He will have all the opportunity in the world to be successful in Philadelphia as one thing Lurie is committed to is bringing a Super Bowl title to a city starved for a champion. It is now up to Kelly to hopefully be that one last missing piece to finally get the job done.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoffs Free Pick
The premier matchup in this weekend's NFC Divisional Round playoffs pits the Green Bay Packers on the road against the San Francisco 49ers in a Saturday night showdown for a spot in next Sunday's conference championship.
These two teams met on opening day with the 49ers coming away with a 30-22 victory as six-point underdogs on the road. Since that point, the Packers went on to win the NFC North Division at 11-5 and San Francisco claimed its second-straight NFC West title with an overall record of 11-4-1. It went 6-1-1 at home while Green Bay was an even 4-4 on the road.
This matchup features one of the most prolific offenses in the league going up against a defense that was ranked second in the NFL in points allowed. The Packers racked-up an average of 27.1 points a game behind Aaron Rodgers and an explosive passing game that was ranked ninth in total yards and second in touchdowns with 40. The 49ers' defense was one of the best against the pass this season so it will come down to a matter of wills to determine which team comes away with a win.
The following is a link to my preview & prediction for Saturday night's game as originally posted on Bang the Book.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoffs Free Pick
These two teams met on opening day with the 49ers coming away with a 30-22 victory as six-point underdogs on the road. Since that point, the Packers went on to win the NFC North Division at 11-5 and San Francisco claimed its second-straight NFC West title with an overall record of 11-4-1. It went 6-1-1 at home while Green Bay was an even 4-4 on the road.
This matchup features one of the most prolific offenses in the league going up against a defense that was ranked second in the NFL in points allowed. The Packers racked-up an average of 27.1 points a game behind Aaron Rodgers and an explosive passing game that was ranked ninth in total yards and second in touchdowns with 40. The 49ers' defense was one of the best against the pass this season so it will come down to a matter of wills to determine which team comes away with a win.
The following is a link to my preview & prediction for Saturday night's game as originally posted on Bang the Book.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoffs Free Pick
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)