Friday, August 30, 2013

2013 NFL Preview & Predictions

The final preseason games are in the book so it is officially time to turn our full attention to the much anticipated start of the NFL regular season. The NFC East will be in the spotlight right off the bat with the Giants and Cowboys squaring off on Sunday Night Football followed by a Monday night clash between the Eagles and the Redskins. While division titles are never won on opening day, the results of these two games could go along way towards determining which two teams will be the lead dogs in what should be an extremely competitive title race that goes all the way to Week 17.

Last season I did a preview and pick for every Eagles' game as part of an ongoing series for Doc's Sports. Anyone who followed my previews as the Birds' season went on already knows that I do not make my living as a handicapper. To say I was 'off the mark' with my picks would be putting it mildly. I was downright awful and a 'bankroll buster' for anyone who actually bet the games the way I suggested. The good news heading into the 2013 season is that Doc's did not fire me, but they did expand this season's article to include all the games in the NFC East on a week-to-week basis. Be sure to check back later this week for my opening day pick.

Looking at the 2013 NFL season as a whole, I am ready to go on record with my official prognostications for division winners, wildcard teams and results for this year's Super Bowl Derby.

Starting in the AFC, I have Denver winning the West with ease while securing the No.1 seed for the playoffs. Houston should have a pretty clear path to the AFC South title as Indianapolis takes a step backwards from last year's 11-5 record. The Texans will win enough games to lock-up the other first round bye as the No. 2 seed in the conference. The Patriots still have more than enough talent to win the AFC East, but a record of 10-6 will have them playing in the Wildcard Round against Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs. There will be a changing of the guard in the AFC North as Cincinnati takes the division title while both Baltimore and Pittsburgh miss the playoffs altogether. The Bengals will face Miami in the other wildcard game.

The Divisional Round in the AFC will have Denver hosting Cincinnati and New England on the road against Houston. This sets up a conference championship showdown between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady with the Broncos earning the trip east to New Jersey for the Super Bowl.

The Green Bay Packers will prove to be the cream of the crop in the NFC as the No. 1 seed while Seattle claws its way past the 49ers to claim the NFC West title and No. 2 seed in the conference. The return of Sean Payton to New Orleans will make all the difference in the world as the Saints battle their way past Atlanta for the NFC South crown. Once all the smoke clears in the NFC East, the Giants will end-up tied with Dallas at 9-7, but earn the division title on a tie-breaker.

I have the Falcons beating New York in one wildcard game while New Orleans ends the 49ers' season in the other. Turning to the Divisional Round, both of the top seeds will prevail with Green Bay beating Atlanta and the Seahawks ousting the Saints. When it comes to the NFC Championship Game, I have the Packers earning a trip to the frozen tundra of Met Life Stadium by sneaking past the Seahawks on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

My official pick for Super Bowl XLVIII is Denver over Green Bay in a game that stays UNDER the total as a result of a blinding snow storm that pummels the entire Northeast.

Friday, August 23, 2013

2013 Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Game by Game Predictions

The start of a new NFL season is less than two weeks away and this year the Eagles open things up with a prime time matchup against Washington in the first of two Monday Night Football games. In a recent issue of ESPN the Magazine, the predicted outcome for this game was a Redskins romp by the score of 41-0. The writer went on to pencil the Birds in at 6-10 on the year and a fourth-place finish in the NFC East.

One of the best predictions I read about the Eagles this season is that they will be unpredictable. Their current win total projection is 7.5 with most of the betting public's early money going towards the UNDER. I have already gone on record as predicting an 8-8 finish but the race for the division title will remain tight until the final week of the season. I have the Giants winning the East at 9-7 with the Cowboys going 9-7 as well and the Redskins tying Philly at 8-8. A couple of breaks here and there could mean the difference between a fourth and first place finish in the division. Regardless of what actually transpires over the course of this season, the NFC East should remain the most competitive division in the NFL.

The following is my official game by game prediction for the Eagles 2013 regular season schedule in terms of wins and losses.

2013 Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Schedule

1 Mon, Sep 9 @ Washington LOSS

2 Sun, Sep 15 vs San Diego WIN

3 Thu, Sep 19 vs Kansas City WIN

4 Sun, Sep 29 @ Denver LOSS

5 Sun, Oct 6 @ New York LOSS

6 Sun, Oct 13 @ Tampa Bay WIN

7 Sun, Oct 20 vs Dallas WIN

8 Sun, Oct 27 vs New York LOSS

9 Sun, Nov 3 @ Oakland WIN

10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Green Bay LOSS

11 Sun, Nov 17 vs Washington WIN


13 Sun, Dec 1 vs Arizona WIN

14 Sun, Dec 8 vs Detroit LOSS

15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Minnesota WIN

16 Sun, Dec 22 vs Chicago LOSS

17 Sun, Dec 29 @ Dallas LOSS

Friday, August 16, 2013

2013 NFL Futures Odds to make Playoffs

Bovada has set the odds for the Eagles' projected win total of 7.5 at +105 for the OVER and at -135 for the UNDER which tells me that the betting public is not that bullish on their chances to go better than 7-9 this season. If that is the case then it will be the third season in-a-row that the Birds will miss the playoffs.

Speaking of the NFL playoffs, it stands to reason that if Philadelphia's projected win total is 7.5 then it is little wonder that its odds to make it into the postseason are +225 for YES and -285 for NO. One of the biggest things working against the Eagles this season is a highly competitive NFC. You have teams such as San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay and Atlanta that have been penciled-in as locks to go along with solid contenders such as New Orleans and Chicago. Somebody has to win the NFC East, which could be Philadelphia's only way into the playoffs; however the three other teams in the division have better odds to win the title heading into the new season.

Anyone who reads this blog on a regular basis already knows that there is no bigger homer when it comes to the Birds than me, but even I would consider an 8-8 mark in 2013 as a successful season. This team still has enough talent to squeeze-out nine victories which should be enough to win the East this season, but almost every break would have to fall Philly's way for that to happen.

The biggest opportunity for a team that missed the playoffs last season to get in this year exists in the AFC. I am high on our old friend Andy Reid's chances to turn things around in a hurry in Kansas City if Alex Smith can play up to his potential at quarterback and I agree with a majority of the experts that Miami is poised for a playoff run this year.

The following is a link to an article I recently wrote for Doc's Sports Service covering my top three value picks when it comes to making the playoffs this year.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Futures Odds to make Playoffs

Saturday, August 10, 2013

2013 NFL Player Props

Each year before the start of a new NFL regular season BetOnline will release what are called player 'prop odds' for passing, running and catching the ball in terms of who will accumulate the most yards in each category over the course of the 16-game schedule. Last season New Orleans' quarterback Drew Brees led the NFL in passing yards with 5,177, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson was the league's leading rusher with 2,097 yards and Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson led the NFL with 1,964 receiving yards. All three have been opened at the top of the list as the odds-on-favorite win this year's crown, but they will face some stiff competition from a few worthy contenders.

The following is a link to an article I recently wrote for Bang the Book covering the favorites in all three categories.

2013 NFL Player Props

Saturday, August 3, 2013

NFL Previews- 2013 Odds to Win the NFC East

Over the past few weeks I have been taking a closer look at each NFL team's odds to win its division this season. Saving the best for last, it is time to breakdown the NFC East to see which of the four teams will break through the pack to claim the 2013 division title.

The current favorite is the New York Giants, but I honestly feel that all four teams have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC East this year. As much as I want to be a homer and tell everyone that the Eagles are going turn things around from last year's 4-12 record with a stunning run back to the playoffs, that will not be the case. What I do see happening this season for the Birds is as many losses as wins that keeps them in the title hunt until the final week of the regular season.

My official prediction for the NFC East this season is a four-team log jam that ends up sending just one team to the postseason. I have Philadelphia and Washington going 8-8 while Dallas and New York finish 9-7. The tie-breaker goes to the Giants. This is the first time since I started this blog in 2009 that I have the Eagles missing the playoffs, but it is what it is. I see big things in Philadelphia's future under Chip Kelly, as his innovative style is going to eventually bring the glory days back to the Linc, but patience remains the key as it may take a couple of seasons to get there.

The following is a link to my preview of the NFC East in an article that was previously posted on Cappers Picks.

NFL Previews – 2013 NFC East Betting